Efficient Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model: LOFVT-OVMD-INGO-LSSVR

Accurate wind power forecasting (WPF) is crucial to enhance availability and reap the benefits of integration into power grids. The time lag of wind power generation lags the time of wind speed changes, especially in ultra-short-term forecasting. The prediction model is sensitive to outliers and sudden changes in input historical meteorological data, which may significantly affect the robustness of the WPF model. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel hybrid machine learning model for highly accurate forecasting of wind power generation in ultra-short-term forecasting. The raw wind power data were filtered and classified with the local outlier factor (LOF) and the voting tree (VT) model to obtain a subset of inputs with the best relevance. The time-varying properties of the fluctuating sub-signals of the wind power sequences were analyzed with the optimized variational mode decomposition (OVMD) algorithm. The Northern Goshawk optimization (NGO) algorithm was improved by incorporating a logical chaotic initialization strategy and chaotic adaptive inertia weights. The improved NGO algorithm was used to optimize the least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) prediction model to improve the computational speed and prediction results. The proposed model was compared with traditional machine learning models, deep learning models, and other hybrid models. The experimental results show that the proposed model has an average R2 of 0.9998. The average MSE, average MAE, and average MAPE are as low as 0.0244, 0.1073, and 0.3587, which displayed the best results in ultra-short-term WPF.