Separate Approaches to the Study of Forecasting the Dynamics of Nominal Wages by Means of ARMAX Modeling

The article is devoted to an econometric analysis of the average nominal monthly salary in Russia. It uses a method for estimating AR - moving average processes, assuming the presence of ARCH processes in the model. The aim of the study is to analyse wage dynamics in the Russian Federation, as the main source of household income, with the goal of forecasting and evaluating its impact on living standards in Russia. Data on average monthly nominal salaries for employees in all sectors of the economy were used. Forecasting and estimation were carried out using the Durbin - Watson criterion and the average approximation error, along with an assessment of Q- test the Leung-Box, analysis of residual spectra, and checking for the presence of arch processes in the models. One of the main objectives of the study was to assess the quality of forecasting when modeling auto regression of moving average, and to assess conditions for the applicability of ARIMA for modeling wage dynamics in Russia.