The Impact of Financial Crises on the Development of the Passenger Air Transportation Industry Zok Taking into Account Cyclicity and Forecasting

The scientific article is devoted to the factors of influence of financial crises on development of the passenger air transportation industry based on application of methodological content of cyclical analysis and forecasting. The problem of forecasting financial crises is connected with many factors and reasons influencing occurrence of financial crises. The research is aimed at systematization of the main theoretical provisions of concepts of financial crises within the framework of cyclical analysis and forecasting, including: the main methods allowing to make effective forecasting of crises based on leading indicators are defined; regression modeling of signs of cyclical nature of financial crises is disclosed, which is aimed at determining indicators of early diagnostics and prevention of financial crises. The research used general scientific methods of cognition, economic and statistical methods of information processing, methods of system, comparative, functional and factor analysis with construction of analytical models based on synthesis of modern scientific methods of cognition of economic processes. Representativeness of the information base allows to characterize it as a reliable basis for an integrated approach to development of the system of early forecasting of financial crises.