Beyond Tradition: Rethinking Olympic Sports Choices

Olympics programming is a complex evaluation task. Based on IOC’s criteria, we considered six main factors: Popularity, Gender Equality, Sustainability, Inclusivity, Innovation, and Safety, each with its sub-indicators. To quantify the suitability of sports, disciplines, and events (SDEs) for the Olympics, we used a composite score based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and expert scoring for SDE evaluation. The proposed model weights each factor with different values by AHP. The model identified the top five sports disciplines based on their composite scores: Football (94.5), Athletics (92.1), Gymnastics (89.3), Aquatics (85.4), and Basketball (85.0). These disciplines performed well across multiple indicators, particularly regarding global appeal, competitiveness, and audience engagement. On the other hand, the lowest-scoring disciplines were Rugby (60.4), Baseball/Softball (61.3), Volleyball (63.8), Tennis (64.7), and Cycling (65.0). To further assess the general applicability of our model, we used K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) for predictive analysis, combining the results with the AHP and expert scoring model. By selecting different subsets of the sports disciplines for evaluation, we ensured the robustness of the model. The predictions were consistent with the IOC's current Olympic program, affirming the suitability of sports such as Football and Basketball, which maintain strong positions in the Olympics. The sensitivity analysis showed that the model's results are responsive to changes in sub-indicator scores. Adjusting factors like Popularity, Safety, and Gender Equality revealed how different weightings can impact the rankings.