The Potential Impact of Peatland Degradation on the Sex Ratios of African Spurred Tortoises

This study explores the correlation between Peatland Degradation, Carbon Flux, and Fauna in the Congo Basin, with a special emphasis on the Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination (TSD) in African Spurred Tortoises. Utilizing data covering the period of 2015–2023 and advanced ecological modeling techniques, the study demonstrates that peatland drainage leads to increasing carbon emissions into the atmosphere, contributing to regional temperature rises that disrupt tortoise populations. Specifically, in severely degraded regions, carbon emissions could reach 20–23.5 tons of CO2 per hectare annually, potentially driving regional temperature increases of 2–3°C by 2050. The analysis integrates high-resolution satellite imagery, carbon exchange measurements, and population density data of African Spurred Tortoises to quantify these impacts. Our findings highlight that, under continued peatland degradation, the proportion of female hatchlings in African Spurred Tortoise populations is projected to rise to 78.4%. However, with effective peatland restoration, this proportion could be reduced to 52.1%, indicating a more balanced and stable population structure. By linking species loss to peatland degradation, this study offers tangible and scientifically validated restoration strategies that can significantly reduce carbon emissions and stabilize local ecosystems. The results emphasize the importance of a systems-based approach to peatland restoration, integrating ecological, social, and policy dimensions to protect biodiversity and mitigate climate change impacts.