Urban Economic Density and Rural–Urban Migrants' Settlement Intention in China

Over the last decades in China, driven by rapid urbanization, a considerable number of migrants have moved from the rural to urban areas. According to the Communiqué of the Seventh National Population Census, more than 0.9 billion people were living in urban areas, accounting for 63.89% of the national population. In this paper, we analyze if urban economic density can affect the immigrant’s settlement intention by extending the Todaro Migration Model. The results show that the impact of urban economic density on the rural–urban migrant’s settlement intention has an inverted U shape. We also apply the historical and natural geographic variables as instrumental variables to identify the causal relationship between urban economic density and the rural–urban migrant’s settlement intention. Furthermore, we find that urban economic density can affect the rural–urban migrant’s settlement intention by increasing rent and amenities, and decreasing commuting costs and salary.