Modelling the future of aquatic products’ trade under marine pollution by Japan’s nuclear wastewater

Introduction The discharge of nuclear wastewater (NW) poses significant environmental, economic, and geopolitical risks, impacting marine ecosystems, global fisheries trade, and public health. Japan's decision to release NW has triggered international responses, including seafood import restrictions and inspections. Methods This study simulates the short-term (ST) and long-term (LT) effects of NW on global fisheries trade under various scenarios using complex network analysis and maximum entropy modeling. Results Simulation outcomes suggest that in the ST scenario, China’s aquatic exports may decrease by 9.11 million tons, followed by Japan with 2.09 million tons. Import reductions for China, the U.S., and Japan could reach $1403M, $1310M, and $1046M, respectively. In the LT scenario, Japan’s exports may fall by $1791M, with China and Chile losing $1321M and $1306M. The U.S. may cut imports by $2521.9M (7.98%), China by 10.06%, and Japan by 7.20%. Smaller-importer nations are also notably impacted. Discussion These projections highlight NW’s wide-ranging trade effects, though real-world outcomes will depend on evolving factors. Ongoing monitoring and adaptive trade policies are crucial to mitigate impacts on seafood trade, food security, and economic stability. The results offer strategic guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders.