Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal
Climate records have been broken with alarming regularity in recent years, but the events of 2023-2024 were exceptional even when accounting for recent climatic trends. Here we quantify these events across multiple variables and show how excess energy accumulation in the Earth system drove the exceptional conditions. Key factors were the positive decadal trend in Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI), persistent La Niña conditions beginning in 2020, and the switch to El Niño in 2023. Between 2022 and 2023, the heating from EEI was over 75% larger than during the onset of similar recent El Niño events. We show further how regional processes shaped distinct patterns of record-breaking sea surface temperatures in individual ocean basins. If the recent trend in EEI is maintained, we argue that natural fluctuations such as ENSO cycles will increasingly lead to amplified, record-breaking impacts, with 2023-2024 serving as a glimpse of future climate extremes.
Authors
- Kirsten L. Findell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1207-1637)
- Rowan Sutton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583)
- Norman G. Loeb (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2538-9644)
- Erik Behrens (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-7227)
- Shoshiro Minobe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9487-9006)
- Benoît Meyssignac (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6325-9843)
Institutions
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Langley Research Center (US)
- Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
- Hokkaido University (JP)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB)
- Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (FR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NZ)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Published
- 2025-04-07
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00996-z
- Citations
- 23
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 25.42
Funders
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science
- Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Langley Research Center
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science