Evaluating the Influence of Climate and Topography on Mount Kilimanjaro Vegetation: A Comparative Analysis Using <scp>MODIS NDVI</scp> and Weather Station Data (2000–2022)

ABSTRACT Climatic and topographic factors are critical for influencing vegetation cover, especially in mountainous areas. This study investigates vegetation dynamics in the South‐Western (SW) and North‐Eastern (NE) zones of Kilimanjaro over the past two decades. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, focusing on Normalised Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends and their relationship with climatic and topographic factors. The NDVI dataset for 2000–2022 was combined with Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and corresponding climatic and topographic indices across different elevation zones. Time series analysis shows positive NDVI trends in both zones, with the NE zone exhibiting more significant increases, particularly at lower elevations (665–1800 m), while the SW zone shows positive trends mainly at higher elevations (4000–5000 m). Climatic analysis reveals a complex relationship between NDVI, temperature, and humidity, with the NE zone showing more consistent correlations and the SW zone displaying more variability, especially in the montane forest zone. A Random Forest (RF) regression model highlights the differing importance of climatic and topographic factors: elevation and temperature are the most significant predictors of NDVI in the NE zone, while humidity is the key factor in the SW zone. Overall, these results highlight the differential impacts of climate and topography on vegetation dynamics in the NE and SW zones, reflecting the complex interplay of these factors in influencing vegetation health and distribution. Future work will involve studying the effects of vegetation cover changes and climate heterogeneities on water availability on the slopes of Kilimanjaro to support effective water resource management.