Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of forests and identifying the contributions of driving factors using GIS technology and machine learning models: A case study of Yibin City, China

This study employs a transfer matrix, dynamic degree, stability index, and the PLUS model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in forest land and their driving factors in Yibin City from 2000 to 2022. The results reveal the following: (1) The land use in Yibin City is predominantly characterized by cultivated land and forest land (accounting for over 95% of the total area). The area of cultivated land initially increased and then decreased, while forest land continued to decline and construction land expanded significantly. The rate of forest land loss has slowed (with the dynamic degree decreasing from −0.62% to −0.04%), and ecosystem stability has improved (the F-value increased from 2.27 to 2.9). The conversion of cultivated land to forest land is the primary driver of forest recovery, whereas the conversion of forest land to cultivated land is the main cause of reduction; (2) cultivated land is concentrated in the central and northeastern regions, while forest land is distributed in the western and southern mountainous areas. Construction land is predominantly located in urban areas and along transportation routes. Areas of forest land reduction are mainly found in the central and southern regions with rapid economic development, while areas of forest land increase are concentrated in high-altitude zones or key ecological protection areas. Stable forest land is distributed in the western and southern ecological conservation zones; (3) changes in forest land are primarily influenced by annual precipitation, elevation, and distance to rivers. Road accessibility and GDP have significant impacts, while slope, annual average temperature, and population density exert moderate influences. Distance to railways, aspect, and soil type have relatively minor effects. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of forest resources and ecological conservation in Yibin City.