Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes

The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain ∼75.36% and 15.91% of Earth’s temperature variations in one year, while the Moon’s revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed ∼11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ∼0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to ∼0.25 °C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO₂

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Digital Earth
Published
2025-04-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes

Sayed M. Bateni, Xinyi Shen, Essam Heggy, Mengmeng Cao et al.
International Journal of Digital Earth
Climate variability and models
article

Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes

Sayed M. Bateni, Xinyi Shen, Essam Heggy, Mengmeng Cao, Kebiao Mao, Jong‐Seong Kug, Jing M. Chen
article en

Abstract

The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain ∼75.36% and 15.91% of Earth’s temperature variations in one year, while the Moon’s revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed ∼11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ∼0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to ∼0.25 °C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO₂

International Journal of Digital EarthVol. 18(1)
Fujian Normal University (CN), University of Southern California (US), University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US), California Institute of Technology (US), Pohang University of Science and Technology (KR), University of Toronto (CA), California Southern University (US), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CN), University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee (US)
Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province, National Key Research and Development Program of China
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 92%
Climate variability and models
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes — Sayed M. Bateni, Xinyi Shen, et al. · International Journal of Digital Earth (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS