Will the Second Trump Administration Cooperate With China in the Space Sphere: An Empirical Approach

This article investigates whether the second Trump Administration will cooperate with China in the space sphere through an empirical approach. The main empirical methodology is drawn from a previous theme-based study by Holland and Burns, which codes the themes of the US Space Policy papers into five categories: competition with the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (the former USSR), American prestige, international collaboration, American leadership, and a new paradigm. The previous study spanned from the Eisenhower Administration to the Obama Administration. The article adopts the said methodology, provides certain critiques, and supplements the data from the first Trump administration and Biden administration, upon which the article further predicts the orientation of space policymaking in the second Trump administration towards the angle of international cooperation with China on paper, but flow between competition and cooperation in practice. In conclusion, the article proposes that China and the US will enter into a new phase of cooperation and competition in the new space era. The latest example of China’s Space Station (CSS) will be taken into consideration.