Demolition waste from the infrastructure network in China: Retrospective and perspective

• A provincial infrastructure demolition waste (IDW) assessment model is developed. • A clear picture of the spatial-temporal distribution features of IDW is drawn. • The evolution trends of IDW within the multi-scenario framework are clarified. • Recycling IDW materials can meet future construction demands. Infrastructure demolition waste (IDW) plays a crucial role in waste recycling and reuse. However, the sources and spatiotemporal distribution of IDW in China remain insufficiently understood. To address this gap, we develop a provincial IDW assessment model to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and evolutionary trends of IDW from 1949 to 2100. Our findings reveal pronounced regional disparities in IDW distribution between southern and northern provinces. Notably, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Shandong collectively contributed 15.49 %–24.25 % of the national IDW annually over the study period. The total IDW in China follows a volatile trajectory, increasing from 110.20 Mt in 2000 to a peak range of 317.43–1084.72 Mt around 2050, before declining to 59.72–393.12 Mt by 2100. Moreover, strategies such as extending the lifespan of infrastructure and improving material recycling rates are projected to reduce IDW by 46.07 % in 2050 and 74.64 % in 2100.