Greening of the Thar Desert driven by climate change and human interventions

Summary: Ongoing and projected climate changes are likely to negatively impact the livelihoods of over two billion people living in global drylands. Unlike many other drylands, the Thar Desert has experienced rapid urban (50%–800% during 1985–2020) and agricultural expansion (∼300%), yet the drivers of the greening remain unexamined. We investigated how climate and human interventions have sustained agriculture and urbanization in the Thar Desert over the past two decades. The region experienced a significant increase (38%) in mean annual greenness during 2001–2023, supported by precipitation increase (45% contribution) and groundwater pumping (55% contribution). Substantial population growth and infrastructure development led to expanded cropped and irrigated areas, aided by an increase in the summer monsoon rainfall and the expansion of tube wells and energy availability to sustain agriculture during the dry season. While climate projections indicate the region will continue to benefit from an intensifying monsoon, constraints related to dry-season water availability and rising heat could pose challenges in the future. Science for society: In a world where climate change threatens over two billion people in drylands, the Thar Desert in India defies expectations. While many arid regions face worsening droughts, the Thar has become a hub of agricultural and urban growth over the past two decades. Between 2001 and 2023, satellite data show a striking rise in vegetation growth and urbanization. However, the drivers of this observed greening in the Thar Desert remain unknown. The Thar Desert experienced a significant increase in monsoon precipitation during 2001–2023. The region has also witnessed a rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture driven by groundwater pumping. The observed greening over the Thar is driven by the increase in the summer monsoon precipitation and groundwater pumping. The increased rainfall during the monsoon season is the primary driver of greening, while non-monsoon season greening is mainly attributed to groundwater pumping. However, challenges remain to sustain this growth in the future. Rising temperatures and dwindling dry-season water supplies may threaten rapid urbanization and intensive agriculture. Groundwater overuse and erratic rainfall could reverse gains, risking food security and livelihoods. Sustainable practices—efficient water management, drought-resistant crops, adaptation to rising heat stress, and renewable energy—must guide future development.