Unveiling the Dynamics of SARS‐CoV‐2 Gamma and Delta Waves in Paraná, Brazil – Delta Displacing a Persistent Gamma Through Alternative Routes of Dispersal

The Gamma and Delta variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 drove the second and third wave in Brazil and significantly intensified the number of cases and deaths. In this study, we investigate the timeline and origins of the Gamma and Delta variants using a spatiotemporal analysis based on 1508 genomes collected between March and September 2021 from health administrative regions in Paraná state, Brazil. Our findings indicate that community transmission of Gamma-P.1 began in late 2020, with substantial contributions from the Northeast and North regions. In contrast, our analysis of the Delta-AY.101 genomes underscored the crucial role of Paraná in national-level transmission dynamics beginning in late March 2021. At a local level, the movement estimates inferred from the monophyletic clades showed that the Curitiba health region was the primary source for Gamma-P.1, with a substantial contribution from Londrina. This health-region also emerged as an important hub for Delta-AY.101. Our phylogeographical GLM analysis demonstrates that air travel fluxes and population size at the origin of locations were the strongest predictors of shaping SARS-CoV-2 dispersal dynamics within Paraná. In addition, viral load analysis suggests that Gamma-P.1 and Delta-AY.101 may have maintained a similarly high transmissibility potential throughout the evaluated months, providing insights into the prolonged co-circulation dynamics. Our study underscores the relevance of understanding SARS-CoV-2 introductions and regional circulation contributions at the country level to enhance public health preparedness and strengthen local surveillance programs.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Medical Virology
Published
2025-04-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.70318
Citations
1
Primary Topic
SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.40
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article

Unveiling the Dynamics of SARS‐CoV‐2 Gamma and Delta Waves in Paraná, Brazil – Delta Displacing a Persistent Gamma Through Alternative Routes of Dispersal

Irina Nastassja Riediger, David Livingstone Alves Figueiredo, Tony Vinícius Moreira Sampaio, Lirane Elize Defante Ferreto et al.
1 citations
Journal of Medical Virology
SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
1.40
article

Unveiling the Dynamics of SARS‐CoV‐2 Gamma and Delta Waves in Paraná, Brazil – Delta Displacing a Persistent Gamma Through Alternative Routes of Dispersal

Irina Nastassja Riediger, David Livingstone Alves Figueiredo, Tony Vinícius Moreira Sampaio, Lirane Elize Defante Ferreto, Daniela Frizon Alfieri, Emanuele Gustani‐Buss, Fernanda Ivanski, Léia Carolina Lúcio, Bárbara Mendes Paz Chão, DIOGO MULLER LACERDA, Bárbara Luísa Fermino, Philippe Lemey, Álvaro Largura, Andréa Name Colado Simão, Márcia Edilaine Lopes Consolaro, Felipe Francisco Tuon, Carla Luiza da Silva, MARCO ANTÔNIO LARGURA, Jaime Luís Lopes Rocha, Carlos Alberto Oliveira de Biagi, Franciele Aní Caovilla Follador, Jeane Eliete Laguila Visentainer, Isabela Medeiros de Oliveira, Glauco Nonose Negrão, Angélica Regina Cappellari, Alex Sandro Jorge, Dennis Armando Bertolini, Emerson Carraro, Wilson A. Silva, C. E. Buss, Vitoria Caroline Tomacheski Schultz Bertol, Glauco Akelinghton Freire Vitiello, Marcos Aurélio Pelegrina, Kamila Chagas Peronni, Maria Leandra Terêncio, Marcos Pillegi, Bruno Zagonel Piovesan, Patrik André Barcaro
article en
1 citations

Abstract

The Gamma and Delta variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 drove the second and third wave in Brazil and significantly intensified the number of cases and deaths. In this study, we investigate the timeline and origins of the Gamma and Delta variants using a spatiotemporal analysis based on 1508 genomes collected between March and September 2021 from health administrative regions in Paraná state, Brazil. Our findings indicate that community transmission of Gamma-P.1 began in late 2020, with substantial contributions from the Northeast and North regions. In contrast, our analysis of the Delta-AY.101 genomes underscored the crucial role of Paraná in national-level transmission dynamics beginning in late March 2021. At a local level, the movement estimates inferred from the monophyletic clades showed that the Curitiba health region was the primary source for Gamma-P.1, with a substantial contribution from Londrina. This health-region also emerged as an important hub for Delta-AY.101. Our phylogeographical GLM analysis demonstrates that air travel fluxes and population size at the origin of locations were the strongest predictors of shaping SARS-CoV-2 dispersal dynamics within Paraná. In addition, viral load analysis suggests that Gamma-P.1 and Delta-AY.101 may have maintained a similarly high transmissibility potential throughout the evaluated months, providing insights into the prolonged co-circulation dynamics. Our study underscores the relevance of understanding SARS-CoV-2 introductions and regional circulation contributions at the country level to enhance public health preparedness and strengthen local surveillance programs.

Journal of Medical VirologyVol. 97(4)
Universidade Estadual de Maringá (BR), Universidade Estadual de Londrina (BR), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), Universidade Federal da Integração Latino-Americana (BR), Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (BR), Universidade de São Paulo (BR), Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (BR), University Medical Center Utrecht (NL), Centro Universitário Curitiba (BR), Universidade Estadual do Centro-Oeste (BR), Centro de Pesquisas Oncológicas (BR), Dana-Farber/Boston Children's Cancer and Blood Disorders Center (US), Universidade Federal do Paraná (BR), Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa (BR), KU Leuven (BE)
Openalex Percentile: Top 22%
SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
1.40
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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