Olive production in the 21st century will be threatened by water stress and declining solar activity
Abstract The production of olive oil, a cornerstone of Mediterranean diet, faces important threats from recurring droughts and the anticipated decline in cyclical solar activity. These escalating challenges cast uncertainty on the long-term sustainability of olive-growing regions. Here we draw on 8000 years of olive pollen data - closely related to flowering, fertilization and fruit production - to identify the key long-term determinants influencing olive yields. Our findings indicate that pollen production, and therefore yields, are primarily driven by photosynthesis, which is influenced not only by temperature and CO 2 levels, but also by precipitation during olive phenological stages and changes in the radiation balance, rather than by variations in solar energy alone. Changes in photosynthetic activity emerge as a critical determinant of the future of the Mediterranean olive oil economy and have major implications for food security in the region.
Authors
- Jean‐Frédéric Terral (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1921-2161)
- David Kaniewski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6569-3184)
- Labrini Tsitsou
- Guillaume Besnard (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2275-6012)
- Nick Marriner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7916-6059)
- Christophe Morhange (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1910-151X)
- Thierry Otto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2854-6454)
- Frédéric Luce
- Rachid Cheddadi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5652-8718)
- Jülide Topsakal
Institutions
- University of New Caledonia (NC)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (FR)
- École Pratique des Hautes Études (FR)
- Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR)
- Collège de France (FR)
- Université de Montpellier (FR)
- Aix-Marseille Université (FR)
- Théoriser et Modéliser pour Aménager (FR)
- Centre de Recherche et d’Enseignement de Géosciences de l’Environnement (FR)
- Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (FR)
- Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (FR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2025-04-06
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02256-7
- Citations
- 10
- Primary Topic
- Horticultural and Viticultural Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 17.50
Funders
- Yale University
- Laboratoire d'Excellence TULIP
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- KU Leuven
- University of Haifa
- Göteborgs Universitet
- Région Occitanie Pyrénées-Méditerranée