Likelihoods of compound dry-hot-windy events are projected to increase under global warming

Dry, hot, and windy conditions are meteorological factors that can affect vegetation variability. Moreover, the combination of them, as represented by concurrences of low relative humidity , high temperature, and high wind speed , can lead to even higher impacts on agricultural production or wildfires, which is still under-assessed. Here we investigate spatial pattern of and changes in the compound dry-hot-windy (DHW) events in historical periods (1951–2014) and future periods (2037–2100) across global areas (including crop regions and burned areas) based on the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) and climate model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6). An increase in the likelihood (or frequency) of compound DHW events is observed in historical periods and can be even higher in the future across global land areas. Specifically, the projected frequency of compound DHW events in the future period under the SSP585 scenario is around 2.5 times the value in historical periods. Moreover, an increase in compound DHW events is also projected in ten main wheat exporters, in particular for Europe, Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil. Over global burned areas, the higher risk of compound DHW events during fire seasons is also projected in the future. Findings from this study can be useful for agricultural planning and natural resources management under a changing climate. • Higher frequency of compound DHW events mainly resides in regimes near the equator. • Future likelihoods of compound DHW events are projected to increase under the SSP585 scenario. • Increased risk of compound DHW events is projected in crop regions and burned areas.