Population‐level impact of semaglutide 2.4 mg in patients with obesity or overweight and cardiovascular disease: A modelling study based on the <scp>SELECT</scp> trial

What is the context and purpose of this research study? More than 7 in 10 US adults have overweight or obesity, which increases the risk of heart disease. Semaglutide is a medication used to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. A clinical study called SELECT found that semaglutide reduces the risk of heart attack, stroke, or death by 20% in adults with overweight or obesity and heart disease. What was done? Our research estimated how many people in the United States would meet the criteria for participation in SELECT, how many heart disease events they might have with regular medical care over the next 10 years, and how many could be avoided with semaglutide 2.4 mg treatment in addition to regular medical care. We also estimated how many people would still be alive if they were treated with semaglutide. We estimated the same information for all people eligible for treatment with semaglutide based on the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) indication of semaglutide 2.4 mg in patients with heart disease. These estimations were based on a large survey of US adults. What were the main results? We found that over 6 million people would meet the SELECT study criteria. Of these, 41% are estimated to have at least 1 new heart disease event in the next 10 years. If treated with semaglutide 2.4 mg, nearly 500 000 heart disease events and more than 300 000 deaths could be avoided. More than 22 million adults would qualify for semaglutide 2.4 mg, according to the FDA indication. If all of these people were treated with semaglutide 2.4 mg, nearly 2 million heart disease events and more than 1 million deaths might be prevented. What is the originality and relevance of this study? Treatment with semaglutide 2.4 mg can reduce the risk of new heart disease events and death in patients with existing heart disease, showing a substantial impact of semaglutide treatment in a real-world setting in the United States. Our study used different analyses to add to the existing research about reducing the risk of heart disease in people with overweight or obesity.