Development of a dynamic predictive model for quality changes in strawberries under fluctuating temperatures

The purpose of this study was to establish a dynamic predictive model for quality change to ensure the safety of strawberries in the supply chain. Strawberries were stored at different constant temperatures of 4, 10, 20, and 30°C, and then weight loss, firmness, total soluble solids (TSS), titratable acidity (TA), and vitamin C (Vc) content were analyzed. The results showed that weight loss increased gradually, while the firmness, TSS and Vc content decreased during storage. Changes in firmness and Vc were fitted well by the zero-order reaction kinetics model. The reaction rate k could be well evaluated by the Arrhenius equation (all R² > 0.900). Dynamic predictive models combined with the reaction kinetics model and the Arrhenius equation were established. Verification indicated that these models could be used to predict quality changes in strawberries during actual logistics (4-30°C). This study will offer an important reference for determining the shelf life of strawberries in the actual supply chain.