Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of land use change in Jinan springs area of the Northern Karst region, China from 1986 to 2022

The Jinan Spring Area serves as a representative of northern China’s karst regions. To explore the land-use change characteristics and their driving mechanisms, six periods of Landsat series land-use data were collected for the years 1986, 1995, 2000, 2009, 2016 and 2022. A Random Forest model was employed for classifying the remote sensing data, while the land use dynamic and land use transfer matrix were used to analyse the scale, composition, morphology, pattern and spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes from 1986 to 2022. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to quantitatively assessed the intensity of the driving factors influencing land use dynamics. The findings revealed thatthe land use types in Jinan are predominantly arable land and woodland, accounting for over 70%, the cultivated land accounted for the highest proportion, 50.95% of the total area in 2022, and decreased by 603.04 km2 during the study period, which was mainly manifested by the conversion of cultivated land around the urban area to construction land, and the construction land became the main type of cultivated land transferring out of the urban area in the 2000–2009 period, which reached 18.2 km2/y, reflecting the impact of rapid urbanisation and population growth; the rate slowed down after that, and the rate dropped to 11 km2/y in 2016–2022 the rate falls to 11 km2/y. Forest land with an increased by 303.78 km2, reflecting the impact of urban policies promoting ecological conservation, while construction land expanded by 514 km2, becoming the third-largest land-use type by 2016 due to conversions from arable land. Grassland, however, saw a net decline of 224.01 km2 as transfers outpaced gains. PCA identified population growth, economic development, and precipitation variability as the main drivers of land-use changes, highlighting the complex interplay of human activities and climatic factors. This study systematically analyzes long-term land use changes from 1986 to 2022, filling previous gaps in temporal data, and provides a comprehensive evaluation of land-use dynamics and driving mechanisms in a karst hydrological region. It delineates the area, morphology, structure, and spatial patterns of seven land use types, including arable land, forest land, grassland, and built-up land. By integrating advanced analytical methods, it offers a valuable framework for understanding and managing land-use transformations in similar sensitive ecosystems worldwide, balancing development with ecological stability.