Land use change, invasive species, and climate change: Drivers of biodiversity decline across IUCN conservation categories

• Habitat loss and invasive species are key drivers of biodiversity decline, disproportionately impacting Critically Endangered species. • Species in low-lying and arid habitats face heightened vulnerability to compounded anthropogenic pressures. • Future climate projections show Near Threatened and Vulnerable species shifting to higher altitudes, identifying high-altitude refugia as critical conservation priorities. • Habitat loss, invasive species, and climate change interact to drive biodiversity redistribution in the Eastern Cape. Global biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate due to the combined impacts of invasive species, land use change, and climate change. Understanding the interactions between these threats across conservation statuses is crucial for developing effective and targeted conservation strategies, particularly in biodiversity hotspots such as South Africa's Eastern Cape. In this study, we integrate spatial and temporal analyses to assess how these anthropogenic pressures influence the distribution and vulnerability of 501 plant species classified under various IUCN conservation categories. Using Random Forest models and a comprehensive suite of environmental predictors, we examined both current and future scenarios (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) to identify the key drivers of species vulnerability and habitat shifts. Our results revealed that habitat loss was the most significant threat, disproportionately affecting Endangered (EN) and Vulnerable (VU) species, while invasive species exacerbated pressures on Critically Endangered (CR) groups. Future projections showed a marked increase in the percentage of species classified as VU, rising from 46.8 % in 2041–2060 to 52.4 % in 2061–2080. Rare species were projected to decline significantly, from 25.3 % to 17.9 %, while Near Threatened (NT) species increased from 5.2 % to 9.5 % over the same period. Notably, NT and VU species exhibited upward shifts to higher elevations, while CR and EN species experienced severe habitat contractions, particularly in arid and low-lying regions, highlighting their heightened vulnerability to climate and land use pressures. By identifying key thresholds at which these drivers disproportionately impact species, this study provides actionable insights for prioritising adaptive management strategies. Our findings highlight the urgency of integrating climate adaptation, habitat restoration, and invasive species management to safeguard South Africa's rich biodiversity and ensure the persistence of ecosystem functionality in one of the world's most threatened biomes.