Probabilistic assessment of climate indices across Europe: analysing risk exposure in population density and land use types

We present a probabilistic approach to climate indices to derive high exposure zones across the European continent, utilizing high-resolution observed data over the last 70 years. 56 distinct climate indices related to drought, global radiation, precipitation, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and temperature are identified, shedding light on the complexity and multifaceted nature of risks encountered by European regions during co-occurrences of the different climatic events. Our findings suggest that precipitation and temperature-based indices are particularly useful in identifying high-risk regions in southern and southeastern Europe, whereas precipitation-based indices are for Northern and Western Europe. Temperature indices and potential evapotranspiration account for most risk exposure to Europe’s dominant land use type. The highest exposure percentage of the population occurs with differences in days above and below the maximum temperature of 17 °C. About 17 climate indices with high-risk magnitudes are present regionally and in specific months, emphasizing diverse risk exposure. Russia, Norway, Iceland, and Sweden experience diverse high-risk co-occurrences, with multiple climate indices related to precipitation and temperature. The findings expand the range of climate indices and demarcate hotspots and risk zones, allowing for more effective climate monitoring and risk mitigation strategies.