Mangroves and their services are at risk from tropical cyclones and sea level rise under climate change

Abstract Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and intensity of extreme events, modifying the natural disturbance regimes to which ecosystems are adapted. Here, we present a spatially explicit risk index for mangroves and associated biodiversity and ecosystem services based on projected frequency changes of tropical cyclone wind speeds and rates of relative sea level rise under SSPs 245, 370 and 585 by 2100. Globally, approximately half of the total mangrove area (40–56% depending on the SSP) will be at high to severe levels of risk due to climate-modified tropical cyclone disturbance regimes. Further, we find mangrove areas with high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services provision, including coastal protection for people and assets, carbon sequestration, and fishery benefits, are at proportionally higher levels of risk. Our findings emphasize the need to anticipate changes in natural disturbance regimes and adapt ecosystem management to sustain mangroves and their services in the future.