Analysis of Wind-Solar Power Development and Policy Strategies for Carbon Neutrality in Hunan Province

Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality, the energy transition in Hunan's power sector is crucial. This study employs the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model analysis to evaluate the electricity production structure and environmental impacts under three scenarios: Baseline Scenario (BAS), Policy Support Scenario (PSS), Deep Emission Reduction Scenario (DES), focusing on the development of wind and solar energy. The results indicate that the increasing installed capacity of wind and solar power significantly improves Hunan's power generation structure and environmental conditions. By 2060, under the PSS scenario, wind and solar power will have achieved an installed capacity of 128 GW, contributing 23.6% to electricity generation, while pollutant emissions (CO₂, NO2, SO₂, PM2.5) will have been reduced by 21% compared to the BAS scenario. Under the DES scenario, wind and solar power capacity will have risen to 251 GW, with solar generation having reached 212 TWh, while thermal power's share will have declined to 9.8%. Pollutant emissions will have decreased by nearly 80% compared to the BAS scenario. Furthermore, the study proposes targeted strategies to address challenges in Hunan's wind and solar development, including the establishment of integrated wind-solar energy storage systems, the advancement of smart grid infrastructure, and the development of a market-oriented trading system for wind and solar power. These strategies aim to enhance infrastructure, improve technology integration, and establish a resilient and economically viable renewable energy framework, ensuring Hunan's successful achievement of carbon neutrality goals.