Exploring latent dimensions of in situ urbanization in northern rural Kazakhstan through structural equation modeling

Abstract In situ urbanization is a rural development model in which the essential rural characteristics are maintained while living standards are raised to urban levels. Few studies determined the complex factors influencing in situ urbanization, despite its importance for rural development, in developing Central Asian Countries such as Kazakhstan. The objective of this study was to examine evidence of in situ urbanization and investigate its driving factors in northern rural Zerendy, Kazakhstan. Annual data from 22 rural settlements between 2015 and 2022, including 79 villages in the Zerendy District, one of the largest getaways in the Akmola Region, were used. The results of partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and structural models supported the relevance of productivity, amenities and friction as constructs associated with in situ urbanization patterns in the area. Among the three factors, amenities demonstrated the strongest association with in situ urbanization processes. Productivity and friction constructs yielded only statistically insignificant path coefficients. These findings imply that improving the availability of rural amenities can be a useful policy strategy to aid a country’s rural development.