Religious group membership and conspiracy beliefs influence vaccine uptake: Insights from 20 European countries

Reports of lower vaccine uptake within religious communities pose a significant public health challenge. While religious group membership is often associated with health benefits, recent research has revealed a paradox: it may also be linked to vaccine hesitancy. This study investigates how religious group membership may reduce COVID-19 vaccine uptake by exploring the role of enhanced conspiracy beliefs. In doing so, we examine these dynamics across individual and national contexts. Using data from 20 European countries (N = 31,681) collected during the 10th round of the European Social Survey (ESS10), multilevel structural equation modelling was employed to examine whether conspiracy beliefs mediated the link between religious group membership and COVID-19 vaccine uptake. Religious group membership was found to indirectly impact COVID-19 vaccine uptake through conspiracy beliefs. At the national level, countries with higher average levels of religious group membership exhibited greater conspiracy beliefs, which were associated with lower vaccine uptake. At the individual level, people who belonged to a religion were more likely to endorse conspiracy beliefs, which negatively predicted vaccine uptake. Our findings underscore the need to address conspiracy beliefs as a critical pathway linking religious group membership to COVID-19 vaccine uptake. Public health strategies should engage with religious leaders to foster trust and dispel misinformation, while promoting transparent and inclusive health communication. Such efforts can help bridge the gap between religious communities and public health initiatives, ultimately improving vaccine uptake.