Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Health Assessment in Chengdu Metropolitan Area Based on SD-PLUS-VORS Coupled Modeling

Human activities exert considerable influence on ecosystem health, a cornerstone for fostering sustainable regional growth, largely through their effects on land use transformations. This study integrates a system dynamics (SD) model with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and the VORS (vigor–organization–resilience–ecosystem services) model to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and assess ecosystem health in the Chengdu Metropolitan Area (CMA) from 2020 to 2035. These projections were conducted under three distinct scenarios: the ecological protection scenario (EPS), the natural development scenario (NDS), and the economic development scenario (EDS). The findings indicate the following: (1) Under EPS, NDS, and EDS, both cultivated land and grassland areas decline, and construction land expands by 40.68%, 54.76%, and 75.01%, respectively. (2) Across all three scenarios, ecosystem health demonstrates improvement, and it shifts from “poor” to “moderate.” (3) Ecosystem health levels in the CMA demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity; they exhibit “low” levels in the central city, while generally stable levels are observed throughout the surrounding region. These results offer a strong scientific foundation for cultivating sustainable land management strategies and protecting ecosystem health in the CMA.