Changes in extreme precipitation patterns over the Greater Antilles and teleconnection with large-scale sea surface temperature

Abstract. This study examines changes in extreme precipitation over the Greater Antilles and their correlation with large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1985 to 2015. The data used for this study were derived from two satellite products, Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (DOISST) version 2.1, with resolutions of 5 and 25 km, respectively. Then, changes in the characteristics of six extreme precipitation indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are analyzed, and Spearman's correlation coefficient is used and evaluated by t test to investigate the influence of a few large-scale SST indices: (i) Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature (SST-CAR), (ii) Tropical South Atlantic (TSA), (iii) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and (iv) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results show that, at the regional scale, +NAO contributes significantly to a decrease in heavy precipitation (R95p), daily precipitation intensity (SDII), and total precipitation (PRCPTOT), whereas +TSA is associated with a significant increase in daily precipitation intensity (SDII). On an island scale, in Puerto Rico and southern Cuba, the positive phases of +TSA, +SOI, and +SST-CAR are associated with an increase in daily precipitation intensity (SDII) and heavy precipitation (R95p). However, in Jamaica and northern Haiti, the positive phases of +SST-CAR and +TSA are also associated with increased indices (SDII, R95p). In addition, the SST warming of the Caribbean Sea and the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation (+SOI) are associated with a significant increase in the number of rainy days (RR1) and the maximum duration of consecutive wet days (CWD) over the Dominican Republic and in southern Haiti.