Role of distinct export strategies in regional growth. A multi-regional input-output approach (PReMMIA)

The relationship between exports and economic growth is a critical aspect of contemporary economic policy at both national and regional levels. However, until recently, the lack of regional data has hindered comprehensive empirical analysis of trade at the regional level, limiting our understanding of why different strategies yield varying national and regional economic outcomes in terms of growth, income distribution, labor versus capital gains, and balance of payments. This paper offers both a methodological contribution and a policy-focused analysis. First, it introduces the Portuguese Regions Model for Multi-Impact Analysis (PReMMIA) by providing a detailed account of its development, including the preparation of national-level data, the regionalization of input-output tables, the specification of structural forms, and the assumptions underlying the model's closure. Then, PReMMIA is applied to evaluate how diverse export specialization strategies lead to distinct socio-economic impacts. The results highlight the potential for spillover effects across various scenarios and emphasize the need for decision-makers to understand the economic complexities and trade-offs in their decisions.