Assessing population dynamics and environmental influences of Balearic green toad in the Balearic Islands

Abstract Understanding the demography and spatial ecology of amphibian species is crucial for developing effective conservation measures under increasing environmental pressures. Over 4 years, we used capture–mark–recapture methods to investigate the population dynamics, apparent survival, dispersal, and body condition of the Mediterranean toad Bufotes balearicus across multiple ponds in the Balearic Islands. While movement patterns were assessed across different breeding sites, demographic estimates, body condition, and survival analyses were primarily derived from Pond 3, where sufficient recapture data were available. Our study suggests that adult B. balearicus exhibit limited movement between breeding ponds, likely influenced by the fragmented landscape of Mondragó Natural Park. We also found that individuals arriving earlier at breeding sites exhibited higher body condition indices. Estimated male population size in Pond 3 fluctuated from 32 to 108 individuals among the study years, and model‐averaged analyses suggested a constant annual apparent survival probability of 0.38. Daily capture numbers were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature, underscoring the importance of hydrological and thermal conditions in determining breeding activity. Collectively, these findings highlight the need to maintain suitable aquatic habitats and account for environmental variability when devising conservation strategies for B. balearicus in fragmented landscapes.