A rotor tip assembly clearance prediction method considering multi-sources uncertainties

• The uncertainty related to rotor tip assembly clearance is analyzed. • The mechanism of rotor tip assembly clearance considering interval-random uncertainty is revealed based on P-box theory. • The rotor tip assembly clearance overproof probability estimation method is proposed based on prediction response. • The proposed method is verified and overproof probability is optimize by shims selection and parts selection. Rotor Tip Assembly Clearance (RTAC) significantly affects the aerodynamic performance and safety of aero-engines. Accurate prediction of RTAC is essential for effective control. However, existing prediction models fail to consider multi-sources uncertainty induced by limited measurement data and process execution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a prediction method for RTAC under multi-sources un-certainties. The uncertainties related to the RTAC and the quantification method are studied. Based on the deterministic prediction model and probability box theory, the formation mechanism of RTAC uncertainty is revealed. RTACs and their distribution at different phases, blades and stages are predicted and analyzed. Furthermore, the estimation methods for probability of RTAC overproof are proposed based on prediction responses. The feasibility of the proposed method is verified through a case study. The results provide more reliable reference for engineers in decision-making.