From prediction to engagement: using technical models to enhance consultation in water management

Technical models are useful tool to address epistemic uncertainties but often fall short of attending to other types of uncertainty that characterize complex water challenges. It is unclear if and how they might be repositioned as a more deliberative tool to help deal with the many uncertainties related to problem framing, uncertain future conditions, and likely intervention effects at various scales. Through the case of a multi-stakeholder water quality project in East Java, Indonesia, this paper explores how technical systems modeling can be used to support consensus-building regarding the characterization of water pollution problems and adjacent policy goals, both in the use of outputs and in the process of model-making and attendant deliberation. The water quality model combines mapped terrestrial pollution source estimates with rainfall-runoff and pollution transport and fate process models to estimate localized, regional, and basin-wide impacts of various source-reduction scenarios on water quality. By visually identifying pollution source concentrations and illustrating estimated impacts of alternative strategies, the model offers a useful visual tool on which to anchor reframing discussions and scenario-building. In this way, the case demonstrates how modeling can be repositioned as an invitation for planners to simultaneously deliberate alternative problem structures alongside interventions to better deal with uncertainties inherent to water resources management.