Von Thunen Revisited? An Econometric Analysis of Metropolitan Expansion and Land-Use Change in Greece

Abstract With settlement morphology increasingly tied with socioeconomic change in contemporary urban systems, the present study introduces an original statistical approach to analyze metropolitan growth as a result of the intrinsic transformations in the respective spatial structure and productive functions. The analysis specifically evaluates territorial transformations over a thirty-year time interval using land-use parcels as fundamental analysis’ unit and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regressions (MGWRs) as the statistical technique applied to metropolitan Athens, Greece—a densely populated region facing intensified human pressure along the fringe. To investigate spatial direction and model the intensity of settlement expansion vis à vis landscape change, we run local regressions with parcel area and fractal index as dependent variables separately for 1990 and 2018 on three aggregate land-use classes (urbanized, agricultural, forest/natural). Elevation, distance from selected economic nodes, infrastructures and services, distance from the city center and business district, as well as the economic status of the territory surrounding each parcel, were taken as predictors of both dependent variables. In a strictly mono-centric setting, parcel area exhibited linear dependence on the distance from city centers; a progressive departure from this relationship intensified with economic and non-economic drivers indicating urban sprawl. This approach—integrating economic and ecological dimensions of landscape analysis—helps elucidate the underlying mechanisms of metropolitan expansion within dynamic spatial equilibriums and concentric land-use models à la Von Thunen. Ultimately, the study presents new perspectives on the factors behind metropolitan growth, highlighting the need for socio-demographic and planning policies oriented toward sustainability and regional competitiveness. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.