Forestation in CMIP6: wide model spread in tree cover and land carbon uptake

Abstract Forestation is expected to play an significant role as a terrestrial carbon dioxide removal technology in low-emission scenarios by storing carbon in the biosphere, thereby changing the physical properties of the land surface. To represent land use change, including afforestation and reforestation (AR), Earth system models (ESM) that contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) draw on common projected land use data from Integrated Assessment Models. The extent and spatial distribution of AR differ substantially between the CMIP6 models ranging from −197 to 363 Mha of tree cover change by 2100 in the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6 that has the highest AR among all future scenarios. The variability in simulated tree cover distributions, in combination with different representations of the carbon cycle, causes a high uncertainty in future land carbon uptake. Here, we disentangle the input information used to represent AR by CMIP6 models and differences in the carbon uptake process to explain the variable simulated potential of carbon sequestration due to AR. We provide recommendations on how AR might be implemented more consistently in future model intercomparison studies, especially regarding more consistent tree cover input (e.g. aligning present-day tree cover, consistent transition between land use and land cover types), and carbon-cycle-related processes (e.g. nitrogen cycle and disturbances). Adoption of these recommendations would increase the relevance of ESMs in terms of providing more accurate estimates of future land carbon uptake through AR.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Published
2025-04-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc93e
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Forest ecology and management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
6.94

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Forestation in CMIP6: wide model spread in tree cover and land carbon uptake

Paul Miller, Sabine Egerer, Ian N. Harman, Alina Barbu et al.
3 citations
Environmental Research Letters
Forest ecology and management
6.94
article

Forestation in CMIP6: wide model spread in tree cover and land carbon uptake

Paul Miller, Sabine Egerer, Ian N. Harman, Alina Barbu, Vivek K. Arora, Arthur Argles, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Vuichard, David M. Lawrence, Thomas Jürgen Raddatz, Tilo Ziehn, Peter Lawrence, David Wårlind
article en
3 citations

Abstract

Abstract Forestation is expected to play an significant role as a terrestrial carbon dioxide removal technology in low-emission scenarios by storing carbon in the biosphere, thereby changing the physical properties of the land surface. To represent land use change, including afforestation and reforestation (AR), Earth system models (ESM) that contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) draw on common projected land use data from Integrated Assessment Models. The extent and spatial distribution of AR differ substantially between the CMIP6 models ranging from −197 to 363 Mha of tree cover change by 2100 in the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6 that has the highest AR among all future scenarios. The variability in simulated tree cover distributions, in combination with different representations of the carbon cycle, causes a high uncertainty in future land carbon uptake. Here, we disentangle the input information used to represent AR by CMIP6 models and differences in the carbon uptake process to explain the variable simulated potential of carbon sequestration due to AR. We provide recommendations on how AR might be implemented more consistently in future model intercomparison studies, especially regarding more consistent tree cover input (e.g. aligning present-day tree cover, consistent transition between land use and land cover types), and carbon-cycle-related processes (e.g. nitrogen cycle and disturbances). Adoption of these recommendations would increase the relevance of ESMs in terms of providing more accurate estimates of future land carbon uptake through AR.

Environmental Research LettersVol. 20(5)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Met Office (GB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Lund University (SE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), Victim Support (GB), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (FR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
National Science Foundation, European Commission, National Science Council, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Linköpings Universitet, Vetenskapsrådet, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Forest ecology and management
6.94
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.