Early prediction of post-pancreatectomy acute pancreatitis after pancreatoduodenectomy: the role of an electronic calculator

Annotation. Early diagnosis and prognosis of post-pancreatectomy acute pancreatitis (PPAP) are key to choosing the optimal treatment tactics and reducing the risk of other complications in patients after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). The study analyzed data from 296 patients who underwent PD to predict the development of PPAP. Using multiple linear discriminant analysis, six main risk factors for the development of PPAP were identified. Based on the results of the analysis of these factors, an electronic calculator was developed to predict the probability of developing PPAP on the first day after surgery (POD1). The calculator includes six factors: serum lipase level, pancreatic consistency, body mass index, pancreatogastrotomy, immunosuppressant use, and diabetes mellitus. The use of an electronic calculator is indicated when the level of serum lipase at POD1 < 648 U/L and allows predicting the development of PPAP in the early postoperative period based on six key factors with a predictive accuracy of 80,7%.