Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Drivers of Ecological Quality in Yulin City Using the MRSEI Model

Urbanization has resulted in growing ecological pressures on cities, necessitating assessments of urban ecological quality. Long-term characterization of regional dynamics and drivers is critical for environmental management. This study proposes an enhanced ecological quality model (MRSEI) incorporating vegetation cover and EVI rather than just NDVI. The MRSEI model was applied to analyse ecological quality in Yulin City during 2000–2018 using Landsat TM/OLI data on Google Earth Engine. Geographic detectors also quantified anthropogenic and environmental influences on the study area. The results are summarized as follows: (1) MRSEI showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.840 with other indices, demonstrating higher representativeness than individual components. The principal component analysis indicated a 12.88% increase in explained variance. MRSEI also exhibited significantly improved identification of roads, villages, and unused lands over RSEI, better matching ground conditions, and suitability for regional ecological assessment. (2) During 2000–2020, the average MRSEI in Yulin City was 0.481, peaking at 0.518 in 2018, indicating general ecological improvement over time. Spatially, conditions were better in the southeast than northwest. While 38.81% of the area showed significant improvement, 10.15% exhibited significant deterioration, concentrated in western Dingbian and Jingbian counties, highlighting areas requiring enhanced protection. (3) Ecological conditions in Yulin City remained stable over time. High-high clusters were concentrated in eastern counties (Qingjian, Wubao, Jia, Fugu) and central lower-altitude areas near Yokoyama and Zizhou. Low-low clusters predominated in the northern Yuyang desert and high-altitude western Dingbian regions. (4) Enhanced vegetation cover had the greatest influence in improving Yulin's ecological quality. Rainfall was the most impactful environmental driver, while precipitation and land use change interactions showed the strongest combined effects. In contrast, air quality had minimal explanatory power in Yulin City. (5) The MRSEI model significantly impacts the ecological assessment of urban areas, thereby enhancing urban ecological monitoring accuracy. Moreover, our analysis demonstrates applicability to watershed regions, facilitating comprehensive regional ecological assessment and monitoring.