Non-Equiprobable Sample Space: is it possible in childhood?

This article presents an excerpt from a doctoral research project that aims to verify children's ideas about the probability of a certain event occurring during two draws, the first with replacement and the second without replacement, bringing to light probabilistic thinking expressed verbally and through written records. Data collection was carried out with 15 children from a 3rd grade class in the early years of primary school at a municipal public school in the city of Campinas, using video recording and a written record. During the activity, the children were able to recognize which event is most likely to occur and were able to work with change and the construction of new sample spaces. The results show the importance of exposing children to probabilistic ideas from an early age, because when they deal with these ideas, they reflect and build knowledge.