Future resource efficiency scenarios for the Western Asian and Northern African residential buildings: An exploratory study

• 850 archetypes across Western Asia/Northern Africa, spanning 19 countries, were used. • Archetypes were extrapolated to estimate residential resource use and emissions. • A dynamic stock model was employed to explore resource efficiency scenarios by 2050. • Combined Scenario (S4) reduces emissions by 56 %, with Kuwait's emissions down by 71 %. This study examines resource efficiency in residential buildings across Western Asia and Northern Africa (WN). The research addresses the pressing challenge of the residential sector's greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) by evaluating strategies to enhance energy and material efficiency. The primary research question investigates how different scenarios can reduce operational energy use, material consumption, and related GHGE in residential buildings. Employing the ODYM-RECC framework, we developed a dynamic stock model using data from 850 residential archetypes spanning 19 countries. This model evaluated ten future scenarios, including six individual strategies and four combinations. The results indicate that a combined strategy could reduce use-phase emissions by 60 % and material-related emissions by 47 %, achieving an overall GHGE reduction of 56 % by 2050. These findings highlight the importance of integrated strategies addressing both construction practices and energy use to achieve substantial emissions reductions. Future research should focus on country-specific strategies and incorporate evolving regional policies and climate projections.