Nuclear Weapons and China’s National Security: Consistency, Evolvement and Risk Management

This paper examines the evolving role of nuclear weapons in China’s national security policy, emphasizing the interplay between consistency, adaptation and nuclear risks amidst changing global dynamics. Since its first nuclear test in 1964 and despite geopolitical changes later on, China has maintained that its nuclear weapons serve defensive purposes. However, China’s evolving threat perceptions shaped by security incidents, regional proliferation and policy shifts of other nuclear weapon states have influenced debates over the approach of its nuclear modernization, likely culminating in a significant acceleration of China’s strategic capabilities. This paper also delves into the dynamics of China–US strategic stability, highlighting the risks of nuclear escalation, inadvertent conflicts and arms races. The analysis underscores the lack of substantive China–US nuclear dialogues, the persistence of mutual misperceptions and the need for effective risk reduction mechanisms. Concluding with recommendations, the paper advocates for enhanced transparency, sustained arms control discussions, reaffirmation of China’s commitments and the development of crisis prevention and management frameworks to mitigate nuclear risks in Northeast Asia and beyond.