Towards a socio-ecological system understanding of urban flood risk and barriers to climate change adaptation using causal loop diagrams
While cities are facing increasing challenges of flood risk due to combined effects of climate change and socioeconomic development, understanding of the complexity of urban flood risk is still limited, hampering decision-making and urban adaptation planning. This study presents a qualitative system dynamics modelling framework to investigate urban flood risk and adaptation under climate change in a coupled socio-ecological system, the city of Hamburg. The developed integrated conceptual model provides a holistic understanding of key physical and socio-economic processes and the role of feedback loops underlying the urban system, and contributes to the understanding of vicious cycles of barriers that perpetuate and hinder adaptation processes within cities. The qualitative approach can help to break down silo-thinking in urban flood risk assessments. Decision-makers could use the framework to understand the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers of flood risk to overcome barriers and lock-in effects to adaptation in cities.
Authors
- Elisabeth Rudolph (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3129-0667)
- Jana Sillmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0219-5345)
- Malte von Szombathely (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3300-7482)
- Jörg Knieling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1555-5458)
- Lidia Gaslikova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8288-6615)
- Anastasia Vogelbacher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7782-3484)
- Marita Boettcher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4376-9982)
- Leonie Ratzke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2856-5006)
- Martin Wickel
- Peter Hoffmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5192-4858)
- Jürgen Scheffran (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7171-3062)
- Markus Quante (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9371-5168)
- Benjamin Poschlod (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0247-2514)
- Nima Shokri (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6799-4888)
- Linda Meier
- Finn Burgemeister (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5144-6326)
- Volker Matthias (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0519-8805)
- Franziska S. Hanf (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3543-1121)
- Johannes Ulrich Pein (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5554-3892)
- Felix Ament (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4500-522X)
- K. Heinke Schlünzen
Institutions
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- HafenCity University Hamburg (DE)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (CA)
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon (DE)
- Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau (DE)
- Hamburg University of Technology (DE)
- Leipzig University (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- International Journal of Urban Sustainable Development
- Published
- 2025-04-04
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1080/19463138.2025.2474399
- Citations
- 6
- Primary Topic
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 12.64