One-third of Australia’s coastal terrestrial aquaculture at risk from sea level rise

Aquaculture is central to livelihoods and food security globally, providing promise to meet growing human seafood and protein demand without surpassing environmental limits. However, the aquaculture industry is vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sea level rise. Queensland is the largest terrestrial aquaculture producer in Australia, largely consisting of coastal pond-based production. However, Queensland is also projected to experience a 0.8 m sea level rise by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Here, we assess the sea level rise risk to Queensland’s coastal terrestrial aquaculture industry using existing datasets on coastal inundation and erosion from sea level rise combined with novel, satellite-derived data on current aquaculture production locations and identified aquaculture development areas. We found that over one third of currently producing aquaculture sites are at risk and one quarter of development areas may be unsuitable for aquaculture due to their high exposure to inundation. We also found that over 98% of prawn sites and 50% of the production are expected to be impacted. Our results demonstrate how sea level rise threatens aquaculture production and assets, potentially generating socio-economic repercussions in Queensland and beyond. These results can inform future planning and adaptation measures to minimise losses.