The spatio-temporal distribution of mumps incidence risk and its influencing factors in Gansu Province based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal model

We used the Bayesian spatio-temporal model to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of the incidence and risk of mumps and evaluate the effects of meteorological factors, air pollutants and socioeconomic factors on the incidence of mumps in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2019 by using the incidence data of mumps in 87 districts and counties in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2019, as well as socio-economic data, meteorological data and some air pollutant data of each district and county in the same period. The incidence of mumps has increased in Gansu Province in recent years. The risk of mumps showed a decreasing and then increasing trend, and the areas with higher relative risk were mainly in Dingxi City, Jiuquan City and Jiayuguan City. The four variables of per capita gross domestic product, average temperature, nitrate and black carbon had positive effects on the incidence of mumps, and the relative risk of mumps increased by 14.5%, 21.5%, 101.7% and 21.6% for each unit increase in value, respectively. Targeted active interventions against anthropogenic sources of specific PM_2.5 components and enhanced prevention and control under specific meteorological conditions can help prevent mumps.