Sustainability of beach tourism in Türkiye in the era of climate change

Tourism is vulnerable to climate change. Türkiye is one of the leading tourism destinations. Beach tourism, based on the trio of sea, sun, and sand, is the main type of tourism in Türkiye. Climatic comfort in a destination is important for tourism attractiveness. Knowing how climate change will affect tourism is very important for the sustainability of the tourism sector. Therefore, applying climate indices to beach tourism in order to accurately evaluate climate conditions today and in the future is very important for the sustainability of tourism. In this study, to determine the impact of climate change on beach tourism the Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) is applied. CIT is specifically designed for beach tourism. Data is gathered from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Both historical observations and future climate projections are used. Considering the net zero targets of greenhouse gas emitter countries, only Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is implemented. Panoply software is used to visualize CIT maps. The future of beach tourism in Türkiye is evaluated for near (2021-2040), mid (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100). As a result, it has been shown that the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts will continue to be suitable for beach tourism in the summer. In the late century, due to warming temperatures, ideal conditions may shift to acceptable on the Mediterranean coasts. On the other hand, the CIT scores of the Black Sea shores will be lower and only part of this region will have acceptable climatic conditions under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The coastlines around the Marmara Region will represent a transition between the Aegean and Black Sea coasts.