Developing an Integrated Risk Assessment Method for Ecological Protection Redlines to Optimize Ecological Protection Policies: Based on a Multidimensional Assessment Framework and Risk Path Analysis

ABSTRACT As urbanization and industrialization advance, China faces increasingly severe ecological challenges. The Ecological Protection Redline (EPR) policy is a crucial tool for land use management and ecological protection but requires a comprehensive risk assessment method to address ongoing challenges. This study integrated multiple factors with ecological resilience theory to establish a “Hazard‐Exposure‐Vulnerability‐Damage‐Final Risk” framework, assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics and risks of different EPR types in Qinghai Province over 20 years. Path analysis was further used to reveal relationships between risk stages. Results show increasing hazards and exposure in Water Conservation (WC), Biodiversity Maintenance (BM) and Land Desertification (LD) EPR types, with improved water conservation, stable biodiversity, and controlled desertification vulnerability across regions. Integrated risk results show a downward risk trend in WC type, BM type fluctuated but improved, and an initial increase followed by risk decrease in LD type. Path analysis revealed that damage in WC‐type EPR was driven by direct hazard impacts, BM‐type EPR by vulnerability, and damage in LD‐type EPR by indirect effects of hazard through exposure. This study emphasizes the optimization of EPR policies by reducing external disturbances and enhancing ecosystem resilience, providing policy recommendations and practical experience for ecological protection and sustainable land use management.