Threads of Peace: Leadership and Conflict Resolution in Nested Negotiation Networks

Abstract This article analyzes the intricate dynamics of protracted, asymmetric, and ethnonational (PAE) conflicts across continents, spanning the period from 1960 to 2021. Focused on Latin America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, the research investigates the impact of specific bargaining and leadership strategies on the peaceful resolution of armed conflicts. Drawing from insights on the “nested negotiation network” phenomenon, the study examines and compares the relationships between parties within 11 complex conflict systems. Key findings include the crucial role of informal negotiations in shaping formal talks, a precedent of decreased major violence preceding negotiated resolutions, and the nuanced relationship between negotiation network density and inclusive formal negotiations. Noteworthy insights also include the distinctive influence of civil society and Indigenous groups, the political role of the military, and the mediating impact of external actors in bridging structural gaps within negotiation networks. The study highlights the significance of the strategic position of an actor in a relationship network, allowing for diverse manifestations of leadership styles in influencing the outcomes of peace processes. Individual authority figures and organizations can leverage their inter-coalition and intra-coalition connections to move the conflict closer to a successful resolution, while safeguarding their own vested interests at the bargaining table. These insights have important implications for understanding the complex interplay of actors and relationships in the resolution of PAE conflicts.