Early life history traits and elevated growth trajectories associated with survival into winter in range-expanding coral reef fish

Abstract Climate change is driving the poleward range expansion of sub-tropical and tropical marine species into temperate ecosystems, with ocean-warming hotspots experiencing rapid shifts in species distributions. While recruitment to temperate waters by expatriating tropical vagrant fish is increasing, surviving through the cooler winters remains a significant barrier to their establishment. This study investigates the links between early life history traits and survival into winter in the Sergeant Major ( Abudefduf vaigiensis ), a tropical damselfish expanding its range into temperate southeastern Australia. Using otolith microstructure analysis, we reconstructed the early life histories of 122 individuals collected from rocky reefs in Sydney (33.8 o S) Australia in 2022 and 2023 and assessed their early life history traits. Our results demonstrate that individuals sampled during winter (hereafter “wintered fish”) had a larger size at hatching, longer pelagic larval duration, and higher body condition than fish collected before winter. Lower settlement water temperatures were positively associated with winter survival, indicating that a settlement date closer to the onset of winter was favourable. Additionally, wintered fish, exhibited higher growth rates in early life compared to fish sampled prior to winter onset. These findings suggest that some early life history traits are selected for survival into winter, potentially mediating the physiological impacts of declining water temperature. If such traits increase overwinter survival they may facilitate the establishment of this range-expanding species in temperate rocky reef environments.