The seasonality index, the accounting and registration of extremist crimes

The article is devoted to the study of the seasonality of extremist crimes and the peculiarities of their accounting and registration discipline in the Russian Federation. The object of the study is crimes of extremist and terrorist orientation, their dynamics and structural changes in the context of political crime. The main problem is related to the methodological limitations of traditional approaches to calculating the seasonality index, distortions in criminal statistics, as well as the impact of legislative changes (2014-2024) on data accounting. Particular attention is paid to the contradictions between the growth of extremist activity and a decrease in the overall crime rate, which reflects internal socio-political conflicts. The seasonality of extremist crimes, as a subject of research, is revealed through the prism of their political conditionality, which distinguishes them from ordinary acts. This indicates the need to separate the methods of analysis for different forms of political crime and to develop new criteria for their classification in criminal statistics. The analysis of criminal statistics from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation for 72 months (2018-2024), the construction of dynamic series, the adaptation of economic formulas for calculating seasonality (multiplicative model), comparison with foreign studies (theory of everyday life, factor analysis), as well as criticism of legislative adjustments were used. Seasonal peaks of extremist activity (March-April) and terrorism (summer months) have been identified, related to domestic political events and climatic conditions, respectively. Statistical anomalies have been found in the crime accounting and registration discipline, including negative values of the increase in crimes and the impact of legislative changes (for example, amendments to Russian criminal legislation regarding CBR). It has been established that the growth of extremism correlates with electoral processes, and terrorism with the mobility of victims. Unlike competitors, the work offers a differentiated approach to the analysis of seasonality (division into "street" and "virtual" extremism), takes into account the exponential growth of crime and structural features of political motivation. The results highlight the need to reform criminal statistics methods and expand access to primary data for independent research.