Environmental factors influencing the odds of livestock predations by wolves in North–Eastern Italy across 10 years: a network analysis approach

The recent return of the wolf Canis lupus has led to increasing conflicts with extensive livestock practices in shared landscapes. Using data from 2012 to 2022 on official claims for wolf damages (i.e. preyed, injured and missing livestock), this study aimed to assess the spatio–temporal dynamics of wolf damages over the past decade and identify the main environmental factors contributing to their occurrence in North–East Italy, using regression models and a network analysis. Our findings revealed an increasing trend in wolf damages and post–damage compensation payments over the years. Damages were more prevalent on sheep and goats than cattle. Furthermore, a higher frequency of surplus damages was observed at the expense of sheep and goats. The network analysis indicated a dynamic process where the expansion of the edges, i.e. connections between municipalities experiencing wolf damages each year, and their persistence overcompensated their dissolution in the following year. Expansion and stability of edges were favoured in the presence of a high number of summer farms and livestock head and in forested and fragmented landscapes, while almost nil in intensive agricultural landscapes. These results indicate that prevention strategies should be prioritised in fragmented landscapes and/or where sheep and goats, the most vulnerable categories, are predominant. Large–scale data accessible to public institutions can help predict the temporal and spatial evolution of livestock predations by wolves. They also underscore the existence of a conflictive situation in the Eastern Italian Alps, emphasising the need for better monitoring to devise mitigation actions for long–term wolf–livestock coexistence.