Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower-mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition.

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Publication Details

Journal
Ecology Letters
Published
2025-04-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70019
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Plant and animal studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.03

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article

Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

Milton Zambrano, Nancy C. Garwood, Renato Valencia, Jason Vleminckx et al.
2 citations
Ecology Letters
Plant and animal studies
3.03
article

Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

Milton Zambrano, Nancy C. Garwood, Renato Valencia, Jason Vleminckx, J. Aaron Hogan, Simon A. Queenborough, S. Joseph Wright‬, Margaret R. Metz, Liza S. Comita
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower-mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition.

Ecology LettersVol. 28(4)
Southern Illinois University Carbondale (US), Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), Yale University (US), Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador (EC), International Institute of Tropical Forestry (PR), Lewis & Clark College (US)
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Natural History Museum, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Directorate for Biological Sciences, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Institute for Biospheric Studies, Yale University, Natural Environment Research Council
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 12%
Plant and animal studies
3.03
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