Management of Ontario swine herd size to optimize abattoir capacity constraints and current consumption of pork in Ontario, Canada using dynamic simulation experiments.

Swine production in Ontario, Canada relies on national and international borders remaining open to both live pigs and pork. The established practice is to export live pigs and surplus pork, as the number of pigs destined for processing and the quantity of pork produced in Ontario exceeds the current abattoir capacities and consumer demand in the province. In the event of a foreign animal disease (FAD) incursion resulting in processing disruptions, borders may close to Ontario's pigs and pork products. The swine industry would then have to make changes to accommodate the resources available and the projected demand in the province. The objective of this study was to create a tool based on discrete event simulation to include swine reduction strategies in a risk-free environment. This tool was then used to investigate a subset of possible mitigation scenarios for reducing the size of swine herds and assessing the number of target animals and pork production capacities, based on known estimates of pork consumption in Ontario. Strategies to decrease the swine herd to meet target values were explored and the amount of surplus pork, surplus market hogs, and the time to reach the target numbers were recorded. Simulated data were analyzed in <i>R</i> and it was determined that simultaneous mitigation at all stages of production (including the sow farm) was the most efficient method of reducing the provincial herd, resulting in the lowest amount of surplus market hogs. Even though it was determined that weeks to months were necessary, using assumed resources, to achieve a self-supporting provincial pig industry that does not rely on imports or exports, the software in this study could be used to run hypothetical scenarios in order to prepare for any crisis in the Ontario swine sector and for planning purposes.